Hezbollah communications network as a "lifesaver" - what utter nonsense! Read an article
on Electronic Intifada's Lebanon coverage analyzing the current
situation. And I must say I am appalled. I am so squarely in the March
14 camp that this quote from the article simple ruffles my
feathers.
"Given this context it is clear why Hizballah, as
expressed by a press conference given by Hassan Nasrallah this week,
was outraged by the government's decision to attempt to dismantle this
telecommunications network, that without a doubt assisted in saving
Lebanese lives during the 2006 Israeli attack."
Granted the HA wouldn't be the world's premier guerrilla force if they didn't make use of technology extensively and the communications network surely is a core component of their arsenal. But I can't believe that such historical revisionism as evident in the above quote can be put forward. How about the HA not starting the war in the first place? There is nothing that would have saved more lives - not to mention property and overall well-being of the Lebanese civilians.
Yes, there is no shortage of valid criticism of both the March 14 and the Israelis (and of lumping them together for this sentence) but to blame anyone else than the HA for instigating the July 2006 war is simply wrong. And yes, the network may have stopped a full scale Israeli invasion and occupation up to the Litani river, but it still doesn't make the quote right. The HA started it and they're the ones responsible.
War, West Beirut and bloggers Having been very busy the last couple of days I completely missed
the events in Beirut until checking my blog feeds late last
night. Call me naive, but I had not expected events to come to
this. Perhaps I had been lulled at thinking the never ending crisis to
elect a president would simply continue. And that the Hariri tribunal
would somehow be a positive force in breaking the gridlock. Naturally
that was not to be. Nevertheless the latest events simply feel very surreal. I am
ashamed to admit, but part of the charm of Beirut for me has always
been its tumultuous past. Having the odd derelict building and having
walls pockmarked by bullets is romantic in a way, but only if you can
believe that its what has been and that now it is different, that the
future (no pun intended) is bright. When I visited Lebanon after the
July 2006 war a lot of that "charm" wasn't there anymore: the war had
become real. And even more now reading that yesterday Hamra Street had
become one of the battle lines with Hariri militia on one side and the
HA and Amal on the other. With my regular haunt, the Hotel Mayflower,
a couple of blocks on the then-Hariri side of Hamra Street, I had hard
time believing the events. This morning, of course, the news reports
were that the HA have overrun West Beirut and that, according to some
reports, they are taking control of many government offices. What I find even more unreal is the speed at which Beirutis in the
contested areas adapted to old habits of survival during urban
warfare. Bloggers wrote about discussing the militia movements and
locations of snipers on Facebook's chat. A lot of the blog posts
reminded me of Jean Said Makdisi's book "Beirut Fragments: A War
Memoir". Not as dramatic as e.g. the siege of West Beirut in 1982, but
it is one thing to read a book about events twenty five years in the
past and then reading about similar events being blogged more or less
as they happen. Hopefully there is a way out of the crisis. Not that I see one
though. The HA have effected a Gaza in West Beirut and have little
interest in seeing it reversed now that it is fait accompli. Rather
their interest is to leverage the new status quo to elect a president
and institute a government on their terms. Effectively this is a huge
win for the Syrian regime and overall I would have to think a fatal
blow for the tribunal. Assad couldn't break Lebanon over Hariri
Sr. and Jumblatt's heads, but with the HA he is doing exactly that
with Beirut and Hariri Jr. At the moment it seems that the LF and
Phalange are reluctant to step in and help their March 14
compatriots. And the HA are doing what they can to not provoke
them. Aoun, of course, is most pleased. No, I really can't see a way
out. Every escalation since the July 2006 war has pushed up the ante
in the HA's favor. Ans they've kept at it steadily. Ultimately it is
Lebanon as a proxy in regional conflicts all over again.
[/middle-east]
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Watching Clannad and Robin of Sherwood on the Tube Late night at the office again. Excel fun doing an expenses
invoice. Always a chore but a pleasant one: there is certainly profit
in retrieving money for all those Facebook ads, domain names and what
not paid with personal credit card. Watching some Robin of Sherwood themed fan videos of Clannad
songs. Excellent stuff. Probably only Star Trek: The Next Generation
(or early Deep Space Nine or Babylon Five) ranks as high as Robin of
Sherwood for me. Was totally hooked on the series back in something
like mid-80s when they used to show it on Finnish TV during
summers. Saw Clannad last Saturday. First time they were here in Helsinki. A
superb performance. Really glad I went to the concert. The set was
pretty close to what's on the 1996 "Live in Concert" record, but that
was fine: at least I could recognize most of the songs. Earlier in the
week there was another stellar concert. This time by the chamber choir
of the university music association. The venue was the entry hall of
the national library and the theme medieval. Especially enjoyed the
14th and 15th century Spanish works, including one set in Quechua by
an anonymous native Andean composer. The library as a setting was
interesting: the concert started with the choir spread along the
shelves on the balcony encircling the hall. The space was well used
with the choir members switching locations between every couple of
songs. Oh well, back to work and listening to Fisk Industries. Couldn't
get Scred Connexion on Emusic. Update: A more extensive post on my
brother's blog on the Clannad concert (in Finnish). Thanks Stibe and
Tebu for a wonderful birthday present!
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Another Finnish startup (Tripsay) featured on Techcrunch Another fourteen hours at the office (though I did skip to the
university for a pair of those). Busy ironing out some remaining
issues from a major feature release to Scred. Couldn't get things
wrapped out today so we'll probably end up releasing two days later
than planned, but that's not too bad. Good to have spring round the corner. With summer time already it
seems that the birds are up and awake at three thirty am. Nice to
listen to blackbirds calling to each other while walking from the
office to the car. Driving home listened to Philip Glass: Symphony
No. 3. But with still running on winter tyres the acoustics were not
quite up to it. Switched to Bassoradio instead. Earlier tonight another Finnish company, Tripsay, was featured on
Techcrunch. Apparently they ran out of the two hundred beta invitation
tokens released through Techcrunch real quick. Good to see their
service featured and received such a lot of interest from the
public. Seems like the "travel 2.0" scene is rather hot these
days. Lots of companies but no definitive solutions yet. With Lonely
Planet having a bit of crisis due to reports that some of their South
American guidebooks had less than perfectly verified information,
there's certainly an opening for alternative channels distributing
travel tips. Remains to be seen how well user generated content will
work for travel. With Tripsay I am quite looking forward to their
destination recommendation service, but at the moment they need more
users willing to generate content. For example, it doesn't help very
much that I am one of the only users rating locations around the
Levant. But then again, their still in closed beta. P.S. The approach we pioneered at The Next Web seems to be
killer. With a Dutch lunch consisting of a measly sandwich or two, why
bother, and especially why bother queuing. First day of Next Web we
ended using first half of the lunch break talking to Erick from
Techcrunch. And (to our suprise) we ended up being featured later that
day. Come Next Web day two Tripsay used the same approach to similar
good effect. :-)
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The Next Web 2008, first day Okay. Party time. We went over another 2^n milestone with the number of registered Scred users. Day on day growth at 13.5%. Really unbelievable. Best day ever. Well - thank you Next Web. Glad we decided to attend. Still can't believe it. What magic did we do? Mixed blessing though. been a 16h conference day and I am really truly beat. Several severely sleep deprived nights working on the next Scred release are starting to show. But mixed blessing: a lot of user feedback to respond to. But that is quite okay. Morcheeba is playing at the lobby bar of the Hotel de Filosoof. A nice cold beer. Catching up on things back home and mail. One thing to gripe about Next Web so far: the wifi has been abysmal. Like there's effectively not been one. And oh: Hotel de Filosoof. What a wonderful little three star place. Each room is themed after a philosopher. We're camped at the Confucius room. With Taoist sayings painted on the walls. Very soothing. P.S. So why the growth? Techcrunched.
[/scred]
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Startup Camp, day two Day two of Startup Camp was consisted of two more hours of
unconference sessions. I went to one where the topic was leveraging
social networks. Somewhat interesting, but not really that
valuable. The focus was on how you leverage business oriented social
networks such as LinkedIn or Ecademy to build your professional
reputation and network. That has certain value, but personally I am
more interested in the consumer oriented sites and their potential as
a platform for distributing and syndicating Scred, and also for
providing access to the kinds of communities that we are servicing
with Scred. Another thing with all those business networking sites
(and the consumer ones as well) is that social network portability is
urgently needed. Later today I filled in my profile at YouNoodle. What
for, really, I don't know. One more site where I've manually entered
my CV, qualifications and interests. What we need and data portability
efforts may ultimately achieve, is a sort of social multigraph. You
need to be able to connect to the same people over multiple channels
no matter where they're listed. The other unconference session I attended today was about "cool
things": useful web-based services, mashups and all that. Kind of
interesting but I wasn't paying too much attention (being occupied
with finding out how to get to Luton in a few hours ... this is where
my laptop run out of battery and I switched to reading an Iain Banks
novel - it was Scotland I was flying to after all). Arrived in Glasgow. My brother's place has a nice view over the city,
but this being Saturday night and right in the center of the city,
well, it is kind of noisy down on the street. No matter
though. Feeling plenty tired after Startup Camp so time to sleep. Glad
we went there. Loads of good feedback and lots of work to be done in
refining our pitch.
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Startup Camp, the first day Been an interesting and worthwhile first day at the Startup
Camp. I'm glad we decided to come over here. This being my first
"unconference" I didn't really know what to expect, but so far the
experience has been positive. Basically what happens at an uncoference
is whatever the attendees bring to the table, so to speak. After a
couple of keynote speakers (David Axmark of MySQL and Steve Garnet of
Salesforce.com) there was a session to set the agenda for the rest of
the conference. Anyone was free to suggest a topic for a one hour
slots and there were several parallel tracks running. The person
suggesting the topic then acted as a moderator for that session. What
was especially good that people who were not experts themselves could
suggest topics. Like someone could say that "I'm having problems in my
startup with xyz, is there an expert in xyz?" It was easy then for
people to volunteer to chair a session as there was a clear demand for
expertise. Perhaps the most rewarding - or at anyrate, the funniest - session
I attended was on raising venture capital. The chair was a Finnish
guy. We knew that apart from us there was supposed to be a Finn at the
conference from a mobile video streaming company Floobs. So even
though the session chair wasn't the fellow named in the roster as
coming from Floobs I assumed that they'd simply sent someone
else. During the session then I was quite of wondering: why did they
raise first round of funding in London? I mean, they're a Finnish
company after all, based in Helsinki. I was about to ask him why they
zoomed on UK-based VCs right away, but confirmed first that you're
based in Helsinki, Finland, right? And you're from a company called
Floobs? And he was like, um, no and no. Okay, fair enough, but what
actually makes this funny is that earlier on he'd talked about how his
startup is doing video streaming and that they have mobile
applications for that. Exactly what a fellow from Floobs would
say. He'd also said how they first focused on the entertainment space,
but then moved more on to security applications. And there I was,
thinking, seems like Floobs has changed direction since I last talked
to some of their people a week ago. Already I was wondering what they
were now called. I mean, being called Floobs and doing sort of "mobile
CCTV" doesn't quite mix. Oh well. And for what Floobs is doing, and
that's in the entertainment space still, their name is catchy
enough.
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En route to Startup Camp in London Writing on a Blue1 flight from Helsinki to London Stansted. We're
heading with Setok to Startup
Camp, a two day event sponsored by Sun and MySQL (well, Sun and
Sun). Friday morning there'll be couple of hours of "startup
university" with speakers from some of the sponsoring
companies. Friday afternoon and Saturday will be an "unconference" in
the {Foo,Bar}Camp format. The agenda - as is to be expected - was
still wide open when I last checked yesterday, but it should prove
interesting. Last count was that there will be about four hundred
attendees: most people from early stage startups that have either
recently launched or are still in pre-launch development. Some media
folks (Mashable is one of the sponsors) will be there too and a couple
of VCs. What we most hope to get out of the conference is basically to
talk about Scred to hone our pitch and get feedback on the various
ideas we've been developing for Scred that are still three to six
months out. We're also looking for potential partners that would fit
our Scred distribution strategy that we've been actively developing
since our public launch last month. At least I am (and I think I can speak for the whole team) rather
excited about how well the Scred effort has been going. Last time
around (2001-2002) when we were doing a startup kind of thing (the
Nodnol project) we tanked before we could launch the product. I can't
claim that we've done everything right this time, but we've done so
many thinks a whole lot better. We have a product on the market and
real users. We have less code and less technology done than we had
with Nodnol, but the release early, release often model is something
that we should have done then too. Instead we built the server side
and the client side on no less than three mobile platforms (Palm,
Pocket PC and the Nokia Communicator - the three big platforms from a
Scandinavian smartphone and/or PDA perspective). We had the prototypes
done and everything more or less worked. And the GUIs and content were
described wholly on the server in a platform independent manner. Very
cool, but also very stupid from a bandwidth utilization
perspective. I've been drafting a longer post on what Nodnol was all
about, what went wrong and why, but that will have to wait until after
the Startupcamp. Oh, and Nodnol, that's London in reverse, how very appropriate
considering where headed. And why Nodnol, well, that's an episode from
Red Dwarf where everything happened in reverse, time running in the
opposite direction or something like that. Haven't seen it in a
while. Can't even remember why we picked it. But it's an episode from
a sci-fi series, like our release code names for Scred. Some
continuity there then, at least.
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Kolme vuotta Haririn salamurhasta Ystävänpäivästä ja Rafik Haririn murhan kolmannesta vuosipäivästä on
kulunut jo pari viikkoa. En ole muilta kiireiltäni ehtinyt sitä
blogikirjoittelun merkeissä kunnolla muistamaan. Varsinaisena
vuosipäivänä istuin Invalidisäätiön sairaalassa odottelemassa
sormileikkausta (vanha lainelautailuvamma) ja luin Augustus Richard
Nortonin kirjaa Hezbollah: A Short History. Hizbollahin "ulkomaisten
operaatioiden päällikkö" Imad Mughniyeh oli aiemmin viikolla
pommitettu Damaskoksessa. Asiaan. Carnegie Endowement for Peace julkaisi viime kuussa raportin
"The New Middle East". Joshua Landis blogissaan kehuu raporttia, Tony
Badran sen sijaan suhtautuu kaikkea muuta kuin myötämielisesti
raportin Syyriaa ja Libanonia käsittelevään lukuun. Ei erityisen
yllättävää. Samaten vähemmän yllättäää, että oma näkemykseni on
huomattavasti lähempänä Badranin näkökantaa. Muutamia huomioita. Carnegien raportti lienee oikeassa huomauttaessaan, että Yhdysvaltain
Syyrian vastainen politiikka muodostui Irakin sodan
jälkimainingeissa. Syyria koki sodan ja sitä seuranneen Irakin
miehityksen uhkana ja toimi totutun ja ilmeisen toimivaksi havaitun
tavan mukaisesti, ts. Syyria avoimesti tuki vastarintaliikettä
Irakissa kuten on tehnyt vuosikymmenet Libanonissa ja myös tukiessaan
palestiinalaisia äärijärjestöjä. Syyrian hankaloittaessa Yhdysvaltain
toimia Irakissa oli Yhdysvaltain vaikea edelleen tukea Syyrian roolia
Libanonissa. Vaikka Yhdysvaltain tuki Libanonin demokratialle voidaan
näin nähdä vähemmän pyyteettömänä on silti huomioitava Libanonissa
syksyllä 2004 tiivistynyt vastustus Syyrian siirtomaavallan
jatkumiselle. Haririn murhaan suoraan johtanut Syyrian vastaisuus oli
Libanonissa sisäsyntyistä. Länsimaiden tuki seetrivallankumoukselle
Haririn murhan jälkeen oli opportunistista, ei käynnistävässä
roolissa. Näin ollen Yhdysvaltain Libanonin demokratiaa tukeva
politiikka sai muotonsa vasta Haririn murhan jälkeen ja
seetrivallankumouksen myötä. Carnegien raportti myös toteaa, että keväällä 2005 järjestetyt
Libanonin parlamenttivaalit toteutettiin vanhan, Syyrian saneleman
vaalilain mukaisesti. Raportti käyttää tätä argumenttina epäillessään
vaalit voittaneen March 14 -liittouman oikeutusta enemmistöön
parlamentissa. En yksinkertaisesti ymmärrä väitettä. Miten parlamentin
opposition toimet olisivat sen demokraattisempia? Päinvastoin:
ministerien eri syksyllä 2006 ja sen perusteella vaatimus
veto-oikeudesta hallituksessa; yli vuoden kestänyt Beirutin
ydinkeskustassa telttaleiriä pitänyt mielenosoitus; presidentinvaalien
sabotointi ja uuden presidentin valinnan ehdollistaminen uuden
hallituksen valintaan, jossa oppositiolla veto-oikeus; ja kaiken
huippuna tietysti Hizbollahin kesällä 2006 yksipuoleisesti aloittama
sota Israelia vastaan. Vaikka nykyinen hallitus koostuukin mm. Samir
Geagean ja Walid Jumblattin kaltaisista uskonnollisia ryhmittymiä
edustavista sotalordeista ja Haririn klaanin oligarkeista on se silti
vaalit rehdisti voittanut enemmistö ja on (toki enemmistönä se on
helpompaa) toiminut näennäisen demokraattisesti. Pari päivää siten kirjoittamassaan blogipostissa Landis toteaa
anonyymisti syyrialaisviranomaisia lainaten: "Lebanon is no longer a
card that Syria can play in the region. It is a card that is being
used against us. We have no choice but to neutralizing it."
Uskomatonta, kerrassaan. Avoimen propagandista roskaa,
imho. Kannattiko aloittaa syksyllä 2004 autopommikampanja Libanonissa?
Kenties hieman yllättäen se johti ylikansallisen tutkimusryhmän
perustamiseen YK-mandaatilla ja rikokset käsittelevän kansainvälisen
oikeusistuimen saattamiseen voimaan. Haririn murhatutkimusten
saattaminen päätökseensä ei ole anti-Syyria -kortin pelaamista vaan
yksinkertaisesti välttämättömyys. Landis jatkaa lainaustaan: "Syria has no interest in hurting Lebanon or
'burning' it, as some claim. It is in Syria's interest to have a
prosperous Lebanon as we demonstrated in 1990s." Uskoamatonta,
kerrassaan. Syyrian avoin hegemonia Libanonissa 1990-2005 oli
todellisen roistovaltion aikaa. Roistovaltion siinä mielessä, että
Syyrian poliittinen ja sotilaallinen eliitti ryösti Libanonin
varallisuutta mielinmäärin. Landisin omaa kommentaaria: "Syria and its
Lebanese allies have no intention of abandoning the Lebanese
government to Saad Hariri, Jumblat, and Geagea. They believe that they
have the better position from which to wage the economic war that will
surely decide the fate of both Lebanese and Syrians." Taloudellista
sotaapa hyvinkin. Kun Libanonin vauraus ei ole enää Syyrian
ryöstettävissä, on sopiva aika käydä taloudellista sotaa. Syyrian
regiimi kokee Haririn murhatutkimukset itselleen eksistentiaaliseksi
uhaksi ja siinä pelissa Libanonin kansantalous on muitta mutkitta
uhrattavissa oleva nappula. Libanonia ei täydy konkreettisesti polttaa
(no, autopommeja lukuunottamatta), mutta sen talouden kyllä saa
tuhota. En ymmärrä, miksi Landis lainaa täysin kritiikittömästi
syyrialaisviranomaisten propagandaa vaikka itsekin toteaa (näiden
väitteiden vastaisesti) Syyrian käydän taloussotaa ja toimivan
Libanonin vastaisesti. Vaan eiköhän tämä tältä erää Libanonin puolustukseksi ja Syyrian
vastaisuutena. Kuten lienen aiemminkin todennut ei minulla ole mitään
sinällään Syyriaa ja vielä vähemmän syyrialaisia vastaan, mutta
Syyrian valtiokoneisto sortaa sekä kansalaisiaan että Libanonin
enemmistöä kestämättömällä tavalla. Olisi varmaan kesällä käytävä
Libanonissa tukemassa maan taloudelle kriittistä turismia, jonka
erinomaiselta näyttäneen sesongin Hizbollah meni toissakesänä
tuhoamaan.
[/middle-east]
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amazon.{co.uk,com} and the cheap dollar In the latest Foreign Affairs Francis Fukuyama reviewed "Forgotten
Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul", a book by Michael
Reid, a Latin America correspondent for The Economist. Inspired by
Fukuyama's review and Reid's supposedly pragmatic take on structural
reform (or neoliberalism, if you prefer) in Latin America, I decided
to put in an order with Amazon. But, the dollar being as cheap as it is, the eternal question
presented itself once more: which Amazon - the .co.uk or .com variant?
I also decided to order one another book and this time really compare
the prices. Let's see. (Rates GBP:EUR 1.4262 and USD:EUR 0.6817.) Deborah J. Yashar: "Contesting Citizenship in Latin America: The Rise
of Indigenous Movements and the Postliberal Challenge" (Cambridge
University Press, 2005). Prices: amazon.co.uk GBP 23.74 (33.86 EUR)
and amazon.com USD 27.69 (18.88 EUR). Michael Reid: "Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's
Soul" (Yale University Press, 2007). Prices: amazon.co.uk GBP 18.99
(EUR 27.08) and amazon.com USD 19.80 (EUR 13.50). Shipping and handling: amazon.co.uk GBP 5.97 (EUR 8.51) and
amazon.com USD 11.97 (EUR 8.16). Taxes: amazon.co.uk GBP 3.90 (EUR
5.56) and amazon.com USD 0.00 (EUR 0.00). So, what's the total price? From amazon.co.uk GBP 52.60 (EUR 75.01) and
amazon.com USD 59.66 (EUR 40.67). Whoa, that's just insane. I'll save
roughly 48% by having my books shipped across the Atlantic. Of course
it'll take something like 2-4 weeks from amazon.com, compared to 1-2
weeks from amazon.co.uk. And unfortunately Reid's book won't be
available until January in the US so I'll run the risk of the dollar
appreciating meanwhile as Amazon only charges the order when it
ships. Nevertheless, I ended ordering from amazon.com. And also indulged
my shopaholism by ordering Teivo Teivainen's "Enter Economism, Exit
Politics: Experts, Economic Policy and the Political" (Zed Books,
2002). The book was available via Amazon as second hand from
"bargainbooks" at the insane price of $0.01! Well, shipping and
handling came at about $12, but still a bargain.
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Syriana, the movie Watched Syriana
today with a bunch of friends. First saw it in the theaters and had
wanted to see it again. And, yes, it was as good as I
remembered. Extremely dispiriting, but very true. Everybody loses,
except some of the bad guys and, of course, the American
consumer. (Not that I wouldn't share some of the blame having done 40
km at something like 13 litres per 100 km to drive to the friend's
place and back to see the movie.) If you haven't seen Syriana yet, do so. As a movie it doesn't for
me rate as highly as Traffic (some of the same people, similar
approach, different theme), but having spent my time in the Middle
East, I can relate to Syriana more easily. Especially, it always makes
me want to visit Beirut again, and for some reason, to travel to
Iran. Doesn't surprise me at all that some of the scenes in Syriana were
sensored before it was shown in, e.g. Dubai. If that doesn't surprise
you, then read "Fear
and Money in Dubai" by Mike Davis (New Left Review 41, Sept-Oct
2006). Not that I've ever been to Dubai, but Doha, Qatar comes close
enough, and somehow the anonymous Persian Gulf emirate portrayed in
Syriana kept making me think of Qatar (though they're not running out
of hydrocarbons anytime soon). So, الحمد لله, we
have our forests (carbon) and lakes (hydrogen) here in
Finland. Hydrocarbons, anyone? Oil and gas? No thanks. (Russian
imports? Oh yeah, yes please.) P.S. The Norwegians though seem to be doing fine with their
hydrocarbons, and, um, fish. Highest GDP per capita in Scandinavia,
and the least hours worked per week. Need to work overtime? No
problem: free whale steak for dinner at company expense! ;-)
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Libanon ja Syyria, Badran ja Landis Kuuntelin eilen illalla kotimatkalla radio-ohjelman
jälkilähetyksen (podcastin, siis), jossa Joshua Landis (Syria Comment) ja Tony Badran (Across the Bay)
väänsivät kättä Yhdysvaltain ja Syyrian suhteista. Landisin ja
erityisesti Badranin tuntien keskustelu pyöri Libanonin
ympärillä. Kuten blogissaankin oli Badranilla kova tarve diskreditoida
Landis, osoittaa tämä syyriamieliseksi hännystelijäksi. Landis
puolestaan pyrki olemaan oikein asiallinen ja "aikuismainen" vaikka
joutuikin muutamaan otteeseen pahasti
puolustuskannalle. Mielenkiintoista oli kuitenkin kuulla Landisin ja
Badranin keskustelevan muuallakin kuin blogeissaan. Seuraavassa muutamia kommentteja keskustelun herättämänä. Todettakoon
kuitenkin heti alkuun, että oma mielipiteeni on hyvin "badranilainen",
pidän Syyriaa tällä hetkellä suurimpana uhkana Libanonin vakaudelle ja
koen henkilökohtaisesti alueellisesti tärkeämpänä "pelastamisen" kuin
esimerkiksi Libanonin uhraamisen Irakin vakauttamiseksi (ts. "ei
neuvotteluille Syyrian kanssa"). Olisiko Syyrian kanssa neuvoteltava? Kuten Landis totesi, Syyrian ei
täydy olla Yhdysvaltain vihollinen ja Yhdysvallat on Irakin toimillaan
ja Syyriaa painostamalla katalysoinut vihanpidon. Landisilla on
pointtinsa, mutta itse suhtaudun aavistuksen verran kriittisesti
Basharin Assadin kykyyn tehdä kompromisseja. Basharin politiikka on
osoittatunut vähemmän käytännölliseksi ja pitkäjännitteiseksi kuin
isä-Assadin. Neuvoteltava mistä Syyrian kanssa mistä? Landis painotti
vastavuoroisuutta. Mitä annettavaa Syyrialla on? Syyria kenties
kykenisi auttamaan Irakin vakauttamisessa. On selvä, että valtaosa
"ulkomaalaistaistelijoista" kuitenkin kulkee Irakiin Syyrian kautta -
ja osittain Syyrian hiljaisella suostumuksella. Silti shiiojen ja
sunnien välisessä laajemmassa konfliktissa Syyrian
vaikutusmahdollisuudet ovat heikot, ja Iraniin verrattuna
mitättömät. Syyrialle Irakin pakolaiset ovat olleet tähän mennessä
eduksi. Landisin lukujen mukaan pakolaisia on jo puolitoista
miljoonaa. Badran lainasi IMF:n tuoretta raporttia, jonka mukaan
valtosa Syyrian talouskasvusta viimeisen kolmen vuoden aikana on
tullut irakilaisten pakolaisten mukanaan tuoman varallisuuden
kautta. Aiemmin tällä viikolla Syyria kuitenkin totesi vaativansa
jatkossa viisumin irakilaisilta. Kenties pakolaisten "laatu" on
nyttemmin heikennyt ja keskiluokkaisia, Syyrian talouden kannalta
edullisia pakolaisia ei enää samoissa määrin saavu, ts. kaikki, joiden
on ollut suhteellisen helppo lähteä Irakista ovat jo
lähteneet. Toisaalta on myönnettävä, että pakolaisten virta Syyriaan
on ollut ongelmallista: terveys- ja koulutuspalvelut ovat
ylikuormitettuja ja irakilaisten majoittamisen aiheuttama
kiinteistöjen hintojen nousu aiheuttaa närää tavallisissa syyrialaisissa. Rauha Israelin kanssa voisi palattaa Golanin Syyrialle. Mutta se
tarkoittaisi, että Syyrian olisi alettava käyttäytyä asiallisesti. Ei
enää terrorismin tukemista. Erityisesti tuki rejektionistisille
palestiinalaisjärjestöille olisi lakkautettava, siis toimistot
Damaskoksessa sulki, ei enää aseistamista tai harjoitusleiriä
Syyriassa. Tuen Hamasille olisi lakattava, samoin PFLP-GC. Syyrian
olisi myös de facto vetäydyttävä Libanonista. Israelin kanssa rauhan
tehnyt Syyria ei voisi enää tukea Hizbollahia. Se taas puolestaan
tarkoittaisi, että Syyria menettäisin keskeisen tuen tavoitteilleen
Libanonissa. Välirikko Hizbollahin kanssa ja yleisemmin rauha Israelin
kanssa olisi myös ongelmallista Syyrian ja Iranin
liitossa. Ahmadinejadin kauden uudelleen äärimmäistynyt Iran jäisi
yksin rejektionististen palestiinalaisten tukijaksi. En voi uskoa, että Syyria olisi valmis luopumaan terroristaan,
liitosta Iranin kanssa ja erityisesti Libanonista. Rauha Israelin
kanssa tarkoittaisi Syyrialle selkeää marginalisoitumista. Ilman
Libanonia Syyria ei ole alueellisesti merkittävä toimija. Samaten
terrori tai sen uhka pitävät Syyrian jatkuvasti mukana laskelmissa
pohdittaessa alueellista tilannetta. Rauhan tehnyt Syyria olisi
non-entiteetti, joka kenties toimisi alueellisesti vakauttavana
tekijänä, mutta tuskin silti poistaisi Hizbollahin tai
rejektionististen palestiinalaisjärjestöjen Israeliin kohdistamaa
uhkaa. Käytännössä Israelin hyödyt rauhasta Syyrian kanssa olisivat
ehkä vähemmän merkittävät kuin usein annetaan ymmärtää. Sisäpoliittisesti rauha Israelin kanssa olisi myös Syyrialle
ongelmallista. Kiinnostavasti käydessäni Damaskoksessa elokuussa oli
tunnelma kovasti aggressiivisempi kuin aiemmin. Tai ehkä tunnelma on
liian voimakas ilmaus, mutta valtion tuottama ikonografia oli
militantimpaa. Sekä tietysti Basharista oli saatu uudet, vielä entistä
mahtipontisemmat potretit, ilmeisesti toukukuun presidentinvaaleissa
saavutetun uudelleenvalinnan kunniaksi. Rauha Israelin kanssa
poistaisi Syyrian regiimiltä yhden sen tärkeimmistä
oikeutuksista. Kehno taloudellinen tila ei enää olisi kansalaisille
selitettävissä sotatilalla. Keskeisintä nähdäkseni kuitenkin neuvoteltaessa Syyrian kanssa on
kysymys Libanonin tulevaisuudesta. Kuten Badran on usein todennut
Golan on Syyrialle taloudellisesti merkityksetön. Libanon sen sijaan
melkeinpä elintärkeä. Syyrialla ei ole mitään syytä neuvotella
elleivät neuvottelukumppanit (siis kansainvälinen yhteisö) ole ensin
valmiit luopumaan Hariri-oikeudenkäynnistä ja sitten palauttemaan
Libanonin hallintaa Syyrian turvallisuuspalveluille ja sitä kautta
Syyrien regiimin taloudellisia intressejä Libanonissa. Syyria ei ole
millään tavalla ilmaissut valmiuttaan hellittää Libanonista ja
esimerkiksi luoda maiden välille normaalit diplomaattisuhteet. Siksi
Syyrian kanssa ei voi neuvotella. Muuten päädyttäisiin samaan
tilanteeseen kuin vuosien 1990 ja 2005 välillä. Syyrian ei voi antaa
uudelleen tukahduttaa Libanonia henkisesti ja taloudellisesti. Enkä
usko, että Libanonin tilanne olisi tällä hetkellä näin kärjistynyt
mikäli Syyria olisi vetäytynyt Libanonista aiemmin.
[/middle-east]
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Reflections on Bolivia's plan to nationalize Entel On Monday, April 2, 2007, the Bolivian government promulgated
presidential decree (Decreto Supremo) 29087. According to the decree,
a commission is to be formed to negotiate the return to state control
of Entel, the ex-Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones, or national
telephone company [3, 4]. Last year on Labour Day, the Bolivian
president Evo Morales announced the nationalization of the hydrocarbon
sector. With the commission formed on Monday having a thirty day
mandate, we can expect Morales to have another labour Day show, this
time with completion of Entel's nationalization. As with hydrocarbons, nationalization is a somewhat misleading
term. Rather the Morales administration appears to be intent on
returning a controlling interest in Entel to the state, i.e. reversing
the ideologically loathed privatization process of the mid-1990s. During the administration of Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (1993-1997)
Bolivia privatized state owned enterprises (SOE) in a process known as
capitalization. A case of traditional privatization entails the sale
of partial or full interest in a SOE to private sector
interests. Proceeds of the sale enter the state coffers. In contrast
the Bolivian capitalization process entailed the sale of a fifty
percent stake in each SOE to strategic investors. Nothing was paid to
the government. Instead the strategic investor committed to an
investment schedule that was supposed to boost the performance of the
ex-SOE by bringing in capital (and, of course, managerial talent). At
the same time two pension funds (AFPs or Administradoras de Fondos de
Pensiones) were created. Little under half the shares in the
capitalized companies were transferred to the AFPs with the intention
of funding the Bonosol, an annual entitlement to all Bolivians over
65. Few percent of the shares were distributed to employees of the
ex-SOEs. Besides the AFPs and associated pension reform, the
capitalization process created regulatory agencies were in each of
sector with capitalized SOEs. For telecommunications the
Superintendencia de Telecomunicaciones de Bolivia was established [6]. Capitalization of Entel took place in 1996. Fifty percent was sold to
Stet International, a company that later merged with Telecom
Italia. Employees were distributed three percent of the shares and the
rest (47%) were lodged with the two AFPs. In exchange for its share
Stet committed to capitalizing Entel with $608m over four years. A statement [1] on Tuesday by administration stated that no jobs would
be lost due to the nationalization. Concluding the statement are
misdemeanors supposedly committed by Entel that seem to serve as a
partial rationale for the nationalization. An investigation by the
telecommunications regulator and a ministry are said to have found
"indications of irregularities in the administration and operations of
Entel that affect the company's financial investments and attempts at
the national tax regime". In their recent book "Impasse Bolivia" [2] Kohl & Farthing claim that
pre-capitalization Entel was one of the best managed SOEs and the
second most profitable. After taking over, the Italians brough in new
management, streamlined the workforce, and started an ambitious
investment program to fulfil the over $600m in commitments. Cellular
service was expanded and fiber optic connections to Brazil and Chile
established. Revenue growth at Entel has been strong, but profits
weaker than expected. Accusations have been levelled of Entel shifting
profits to overseas subsidiaries as a means of tax evasion; full
repartiation of profits of the capitalized companies is otherwise
allowed. Weak financial transparency and regulatory control have
undermined investor confidence and Entel's stock price has at times
been lower than existing cash reserves. [Note 1] Despite telecommunications deregulation in Bolivia, Entel remains the
dominant operator in all sectors. Reports [3, 4] vary, but Entel is
claimed to hold 68% to 80% of the long distance market, 67% to 70% of
the cellular market and 90% of the Internet market. Whether nationalization of Entel makes sense or not remains to be
seen. Most likely the Morales administration is using the supposed
misdeeds of Entel to push for a best possible deal with Telecom Italia
(TI). According to reports [4, 7], the TI has valued its stake in
Entel at $170m. Also, TI is supposedly willing to sell and doesn't
consider its stake in Entel as strategic [7]. Given that TI has
invested at least over $600m in Entel, $170m seems low. Few possible
explanations: (1) Entel was a rather sucky investment for TI; (2)
Bolivian accusations are true and Entel has siphoned off profits thus
recouping its investment (the "tax evasion" claim); or (3) TI's
investments are not exactly what they seem (the "financial
investments" claim. Regarding the third point, something similar to what happened
with the capitalized Bolivian flag carrier LAB (Lloyd Aero Boliviano)
could have happened [2]. After the 50% stake in LAB was acquired by
the Brazilian carrier VASP, LAB rented offices in Miami from VASP
paying a total of $11.5m in rents over six years. Strangely enough LAB
already had perfectly adequate offices in Miami. As a result
significant percentage of VASP's total capitalization commitment of
$47.5m was routed right back to where it came from. As for the second point (tax evasion), it is also somewhat
plausible. According to an anecdote related by Kohl & Farthing [2],
Bolivian companies keep three sets of books (accounting). One set is
accounts is kept for government inspections (taxes), another to show
minority investors what supposedly is "really" happening at the
company, and a third set that is kept internally to know what the true
state of the company is. Naturally, the controlling investor(s) have
privileged access to the accurate books.
Especially if the allegations of tax evasion and profit siphoning are
true nationalization would make sense. However, strenghtening
transparency and regularions could achieve (almost) the same thing,
but without the imposition of a state owned behemoth on a sector that
by all accounts benefits from competition.
Capitalizations
Entel post-capitalization
References
Notes
[]
permanent link
Apple Bonjour, multicast DNS (MDNS) and BitTorrent Amusing problems I've been having with my Internet service at
home. I am subscribed with Welho, a local cable operator. Their
Internet service is nothing special but having to wait over a month
for DSL activation has always been two much for me. So when I returned
from Damascus last year I decided to reinstate my service with
Welho. However, for the past couple of weeks performance has been
terrible. A constant flow of over half a megabit per second has been
coming in over the link. Some sniffing revealed that the traffic is
multicast DNS, i.e. UDP traffic to port 5535 and multicast destination
224.0.0.251. Further debugging revealed that almost all of the traffic
was DNS requests and responses for IN PTR
_bittorrent_.tcp.local. Nice. Apparently there are BitTorrent implementations that use
multicasting and specifically the MDNS service to solicit tracker
information. Despite quite a lot of googling I haven't found a
specification for such a protovols nor details of which BitTorrent
implementations use it. Having found the source of the unwanted traffic I was still at a loss
whether there was anything I could do to avoid it. I am not using
BitTorrent (well, not at the moment, that is) so I wasn't exactly
soliciting the traffic. Turns out that MDNS is what Apple's Bonjour
(think iTunes sharing, for example) uses internally. Some
experimenting revealed that whenever I switched on the WLAN on my Mac,
an IGMP membership report was sent. In effect, the Mac announced that,
yes, please, bring on all that MDNS traffic. Welho's network supports
multicasting and I was also receiving an IGMP group membership query
every two minutes. Disconnecting the Mac sniffing traffic with a Linux
showed that after a few (unanswered) group membership queries the
nexthop upstream router concluded membership as expired and the flood
of BitTorrent MDNS ceased. Positively, roundtrip times to a host I was
accessing over SSH dropped to under ten ms from an average of roughly
400 ms. Finally, I decided to do away with Bonjour by disabling the
mDNSResponder on my Mac. The launchctl command was helpful: "sudo
launchctl unload -w
/System/Library/LaunchDaemons/com.apple.mDNSResponder.plist". Now the
IGMP queries go unanswered and no membership reports for MDNS are
sent. Moral of the story? Macs (or OSX) are nice and all, but too chatty for
my tastes. With Linux I usually know what is going on, but the Mac
just keeps talking behind your back (with the best of intentions to be
sure, but still a bad idea). On the other hand, the BitTorrent over
MDNS is clearly using a protocol for something it really wasn't
intended to. And Welho doesn't escape blameless either. Bridging users
to a /21 Ethernet segment allows MDNS to spread far too wide. The
specification limits MDNS scope to link local, but it doesn't operate
well in a /21 segment where the users are not on a LAN (as customarily
understood). Addendum: A note on a few interesting tools I used in debugging the
problem. Debian package "mdns-scan" was interesting in scanning the
/21 for services with MDNS. Running mdns-scan sends an "igmp v2
report" announcing membership in 224.0.0.251. Of course, the result
was a flood of BitTorrent junk. Killing mdns-scan sends an appropriate
"igmp leave" but it seems to take something like five minutes before
the flood recedes. Another interesting Debian package: nemesis. With
IGMP module of Nemesis it was easy to create IGMP report and leave
messages from the command line. An IGMP report to announce membership
and receive MDNS: "nemesis igmp -v -p 22 -i 224.0.0.251 -S
62.78.216.12 -D 224.0.0.251". A corresping IGMP leave is accomplished
with: "nemesis igmp -v -p 23 -i 224.0.0.251 -S 62.78.216.12 -D
224.0.0.1". The -S switch specifies the source host address and should
be modified.
[/hacking]
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Zambia, vultures and the need for a Drago Doctrine (version 2.0) Was reading about the agreement between Lula and Evo on gas price
increases, another $100m windfall for Bolivia, when I stumbled upon an
interesting news item about Zambia, of all places. Apparently Zambia
is in south central Africa, burdened with about $6bn of external debt,
has GDP of roughly $10bn and imports and exports both howering at
little under $2bn. Zambia's economy used to depend on copper exports
and do rather okay by African standards. However, in late 1960s the
copper industry was nationalized with unfortunate results. Come the
1970s and the oil shock hit and was then followed in mid-decade by a
halving of copper prices on the world markets. By the 1980s, Zambia
was neck deep in IMF debt. Decade on the copper industry was
privatized again and reforms implemented in textbook Washington
Consensus fashion. Not much good in that as opening of the economy
decimated local industry. Recently, the copper industry has been
showing some promise (with strong investment interests by the
Chinese), but the HIPC initiative hasn't worked any wonders on the
debt relief front. Enough on the background. The news today was about some tractors that
the Zambians bought from Romania in 1979. Not that they had the money,
but kindly the Romanian government was keen on promoting its
agricultural equipment industry and lent the Zambians what they
needed. Presumably the tractors eventually arrived and were put to
productive use. Fast forward twenty years. The Romanian government is
still owed the debt by the Zambians. Nominally the debt is valued at
around $30m, but the Romanians are taking a reasonable position and
have all but agreed to settle the debt for $3m. Before the contract is
signed an investment fund, Donegal International, registered in the
British Virgin Islands, appears. Michael Sheehan, a US national and
owner of Donegal contacts president Chiluba of Zambia and a donation
to "Chiluba's favourite charity" is offered, a cool $2m. Suddenly,
Zambia isn't interested in a deal with the Romanians anymore. Instead,
the Romanians sell the debt to Donegal for $4m. At the time the
Zambian government approves the move. Fast forward again, this time to February 2007 and a court room in the
UK. Donegal is demanding $55m from the Zambians. Apparently interest
and "costs" have ballooned the debt somewhat. President Chiluba has
been out of office since 2001 and the Zambians are no longer as
pleased with their deal with Donegal. Despite protests from Gordon
Brown and an assortment of debt relief activists, the judge is forced
to approve of Donegal's case. Legality is on the vulture fund's side
despite the gross immorality of the affair. As a result all of
Zambia's assets in the UK are frozen; whether there are any, the
reports don't tell. The case is still ongoing, but the speculation is
that the judge would force Zambia to pay Donegal anywhere between $10m
and $20m. Not nice, considering that the sum total of debt relief
expected for Zambia this year is under $50m. What I find interesting in the case is the clear abrogation of the
Drago Doctrine. In 1902 the Europeans (Britain, Germany and Italy)
were imposing a naval blockade on Venezuela and for good measure
shelling the ports. The reason: Venezuela was hugely indebted and the
Europeans were intent on collecting. Back in 1823, James Monroe,
president of the US, had formulated what came to be called the Monroe
Doctrine. Essentially the doctrine stated that the Latin American wars
of independence had been concluded to the detriment of the Europeans
and that the new order was irreversible, "America to the Americans" as
it is succintly put. Building on the Monroe Doctrine, the Argentine
foreign minister Luis María Drago in 1902 defined what has become to
be known as the Drago Doctrine: "the public debt cannot bring about a
military intervention or give merit to the material occupation of the
soil of the American nations by a European power" (Drago's letter to
the Argentine ambassador to the US, quoted in Joseph Stiglitz, Making
Globalization Work, p. 213). Drago continued "in the first place the lender knows that he is
entering into a contract with a sovereign entity, and it is an
inherent qualification of all sovereignty that no proceedings for the
execution of a judgement may be instituted or carried out against it,
since this manner of collection will compromise its very existence and
cause the independence and freedom of action of the respective
government to disappear" (ibid., p. 214). The crisis in Venezuela was eventually defused by US allusions to the
Monroe Doctrine, and more concretely, by the proximity of the US
Caribbean fleet. What precisely prompted the US to act was German
imperial ambitios and intention to establish a permanent base on the
Venezuelan coast. Having spared Venezuela of mafia-style debt
collection by the Europeans, the US was quick to reconsider. Only two
years later, in 1904, president Roosevelt announced the Roosevelt
corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. If debt default was a sovereign
right, then what of the US investments in Latin America? Early on in
the 20th century Britain was still the largest investor in Latin
America, but by the Great Depression the US would have claimed its
role as the foreign nation with most vested (financial) interest in
the stability of its southern neighbours. "All nations are sovereign,
but some are more sovereign than others," might be the succint version
of Roosevelt's diluted Monroe Doctrine. Having Zambia's assets frozen by a UK court on the behest of a private
company, hmmh, doesn't that sound a bit contradictory if the Drago
Doctrine and sovereignty in general are to hold? Neat that coercion
can be achieved by switching a bit or two in some bank databases. No
need for the fleet and all that shelling. Except, of course, that the
UK is not the villain here, its doing its job in upholding the law
though it mystifies me somewhat that case has even been accepted at a
UK court. Presumably the tax haven where Donegal Investment is
registered falls under British jurisdiction and perhaps the debt sale
contract with the Romanians also applies under British law. Common sense dictates that the bad guys here are Donegal, and perhaps
the Zambian administration that approved the debt sale. Earlier the
Zambians had offered Donegal $14m, but apparently that wasn't
enough. Rather a pity that Zambia needs to go through the ordeal of an
odious court case like this. Not easy to be a faithful debtor and
maintain the good graces of the multilaterals. In the hopes of debt
relief Zambia can't simply default and let Donegal feel the pain of a
risk realized: that's what you get buying discount debt - it tends to
be bad.
[]
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Kaksi vuotta Haririn salamurhasta Kaksi vuotta sitten ystävänpäivänä olin saapunut ensimmäistä kertaa
Damaskokseen pari päivää aiemmin. Kämppä oli vielä
remontoitavana. Asuinpaikkani oli Carlton Hotel suunnilleen Mezzehin
ja Kafar Sousehin välimaastossa. Hotellin ikkunasta näkyi iso armeijan
kolossi. Otin siitä valokuvia havaitakseni päivällä isot "no
photographs" -kyltit katutasossa. Ystävänpäivänä hotellin piha oli
väärällään mersuja Libanonin kilvissä. Ensimmäinen kosketukseni
Libanoniin. Huoneeni oli kuudennessa kerroksessa. Hotellin disko
kerrosta ylempänä. Unta sain yöllä vasta kolmen jälkeen meiningin
yläkerrassa hieman rauhoituttua. Libanonilaisnaisten korkokenkätanssi
metelöi katon läpi huoneeseeni kerrassaan mahdottomasti. En tuolloin tiennyt Libanonista kerrassaan mitään. Erityisen hyvin en
voi väittää maata vieläkään ymmärtäväni, mutta ainakin tiedän
riittävästi voidakseni olla vihainen seuratessani Libanonin
säpälöitymistä. Rafik Harirista kuulin ensimmäistä kertaa vasta pommin
jo räjähdettyä. Syyrialaisen asiakkaamme toimistolla pällisteltiin
uutisia verkosta. En tuolloin tiennyt riittävästi edes syyrialaisista,
että olisin voinut päätellä mitä mieltä paikalliset olivat
tapahtuneesta. Kummallisen vaitonaisia olivat, muistan
ihmetelleeni. Eipä kovin yllättävää näin myöhemmin tarkasteltuna. Seuraavana päivänä lueskelin hallituksen englanninkielistä lehteä,
Syrian Timesiä. Ei vaatinut kovin kummoista medialukutaitoa oppia
lukemaan kyseistä propaganda-aviisia hieman epäuskoisesti
virnistellen. Luonnollisesti SANA (Syrian Arab News Agency) osoitti
syyttävän sormensa kohti Israelia. Selvähän se, on toki loogista, että
näin mittavan operaation voi suorittaa vain valtiollinen toimija
(tiedustelupalvelu) ja sehän on siis tietysti Mossad. Aina
hämmästyttää kuinka suorastaan typeriltä dogmaattiset
syyrialaislausunnot voivat kuullostaa. Varmasti Mossad olisi moisen
iskun kyennyt suorittamaan, mutta miten Syyria saattoi antaa kyseisen
kaltaisia lausuntoja, kun maan oma tiedustelupalvelu tunnetusti oli
libanonilaiskätyriensä turvin suvereeni tiedusteluelin Libanonissa. En voi väittää olevani kovin objektiivinen, toisaalta. Libanonista
pidin välittömästi saapuessani sinne ensimmäistä kertaa pari viikkoa
Haririn murhan jälkeen. En ole riittävän vanha, että olisin
aktiivisesti seurannut tapahtumia Libanonin sisällissodan
aikaan. Sodan jälkeiseltä ajalta mieleeni oli tarttunut vain
sekalaisia havaintoja. Oikeastaan pidin maata kummallisena vakauden
menettäneenä palestiinlaisterroristien temmellyskenttänä, josta
ammuttiin raketteja Israeliin. En varmaan osannut tehdä kunnollista
eroa palestiinalaisten ja Hizbollahin välille. Beirutista minulla oli
kuva modernina ja vapaamielisenä kaupunkina, sellainen vauras ja
raikas länsimaalaisuuden keidas arabimaailmassa. Beirut täytti odotukseni. Suuntasin Hamraan, Hotel Mayflowerissa ja sen
Duke of Wellington -baarissa voi istua ja siemailla libanonilaista
Al-Mazaa -olutta (suosittelen, erityisesti kesäkuumalla Mayflowerin
kattoterassilla nautittuna), en tiedä, ehkä siinä on sellaista
kotoisuutta muuten vieraassa ympäristössä, joka on vastustamattoman
kiehtovaa. En oikein osaa sitä selittää, ehkä siinä on hiven jotain
kolonialistista. Hamra, Solidere, Rue Monot, Rauoche. Ei kovin
representatiivinen kuva Beirutista, mutta se mitä olin hakemassa,
vaihtelua Damaskokselle. Beirutissa oli illuusio
vapaudesta. Damaskoksessa oli liiankin selvää, että sieltä se vapaus
puuttui. Beirutissa sentään vapauden idea ainakin suunnilleen
ymmärrettiin. Maleksittuani illan Hamrassa, ihasteltuani Bliss Streetiä ja AUB:ta,
kiertelin seuraavan päivän kaupungilla. Aikani etsiskeltyäni löysin
marttyyrien aukiolle. Kiertelin seetrivallankumouksellisten
telttaleirin pariin otteeseen. Paikalle majoittuneiden lisäksi ei
väkeä vielä ollut kovin, mutta iltaa kohden aukio täyttyi. Kävin
Haririn haudalla vielä silloin työnalla olleen, Haririn rahoittaman,
moskeijan vieressä. Työmaa-aidat olivat täynnällään
iskulauseita. Kolme keskeistä teemaa olivat: Syyria ulos (armeija,
loppu miehitykselle), alas tiedusteluvalta (irti Syyrian
tiedustelupalvelun ja näiden libanonilaiskätyreiden kahlitsevasta
otteesta) ja totuus Haririn murhan toimeenpanijoista. Neljäntenä
teemana telttakylän bannereissa ja plakaateissa perättiin
libanonilaisten yhtenäisyyttä, pois uskonnollisten ryhmien
vastakkainasettelu. Varsin pinnallista tämä ryhmittymien välinen yhteiselo oli
silloinkin. Istuskelin pitkään keskustelemasas erään teltan
edustalla. Kertoivat olevansa druuseja. Eräs totesi: "Walid Jumblatt
for president!" Muut toppuuttelivat (puolivakavissaan), hei, ei noin
saa sanoa! Enpä oikein tiedä miten libanonin sektariaanisuutta
voitaisiin purkaa. Edes seetrivallankumouksen "ytimessä"
klaaniuskollisuus eli vahvasti. Kaksi vuotta myöhemmän hallituskriisin
edellytykset olivat jo tuolloin selvästi esillä. Seetrivallankumous
oli kuitenkin vahvasti keskiluokkainen, sunnien, kristittyjen ja
druusien projekti. Shiiat olivat poissa ja osallistuivat vasta
Hizbollahin masinoimiin vastamielenosoituksiin. Oli ehkä virhe sotkea
sekä Syyria että Hizbollah samaan turvallisuusneuvoston
päätöslauselmaan (1559). Vaikka ehkä on turha edes miettä, että
Syyrian miehityksen purkaminen ja Hizbollahin aseistariisunta olisi
voitu pitää erillään Yhdysvaltain ja Ranskan Libanonia tukevassa
politiikassa. Silti se turhaan repi libanonilaista mielipidettä
kahtaalle. Vastamielenosoituksillaan Hizbollah esitti tukensa
Syyrialle, mutta samalla kamppaili omasta puolestaan päätöslauselmaa
vastan. Huolimatta eilisistä Bikfayan bussipommeista Haririn muistopäivä
näyttää sujuneen rauhallisesti. Armeija on saanut pidettyä
hallitusmieliset ja opposition irti toistensa kurkuista. Hyvä niin,
mutta en oikeastaan edes uskonut kahden viikon takaisten mellakoiden
toistuvan. Eilinen provokaatio epäonnistui. Se oli kerrassaan liian
härski, aivan turhan yksioikoisesti hallitusmielisiä kristittyjä
vastaan suunnattu. Se on uskomattoman surullista, että olisi Syyrian
etujen mukaista provosoida koko Libanon kiehumaan yli. Onneksi
provokaatio oli niin roistomaisen kovakourainen. Väitän sen lisänneen
kaikkien osapuolten halua ystävänpäivän rauhanomaiseen
läpivientiin. Jännitteet eivät ole mihinkään kadonneet, mutta olisi
ollut kaikille aivan liian kriittistä antaa niiden purkautua tänään. Niin se vain on - olen tainnut tulla itsekin dogmaattiseksi. En osaa
nähdä muita tahoja Bikfayan pommien taustalla kuin Syyrian. Haririn
tribunaali ei Syyrian näkökulmasta saa tapahtua. Syyrian tuomitseva
ratkaisu tribunaalissa olisi Syyrian regiimille liian iso
riski. Kansainvälinen yhteisö ei voisi olla asettamatta
pakotteita. Syyria menettäisi sen tuen, joka sillä vielä arabimaiden
yhteisössä on. Myös Iranin kärsivällisyys olisi koetuksella. Vahvasti
ongelmainen Syyria olisi Iranille vain riippakivi. Hankala kevät on
vielä edessä kaikille osapuolille. Hienoa, etteivät Ranska ja
Yhdysvallat ole hylänneet Libanonia. Onneksi Yhdysvallat ei ole ollut
valmis kompromissiin Syyrian kanssa Irakin rauhoittamiseksi. Siinä
diilissä Libanon menisi uhrilampaana ja hyöty Irakin osalta olisi
sekin kyseenalaista.
[/middle-east]
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"No mattresses allowed!" Funny dream I had yesterday night. In the dream, I was at the Cable
Factory, at our office. There were some other people as well. We were
discussing the new rules issued by the building management. According
to the rules it was not allowed anymore to have mattresses at office
facilities. We understood that the rule was enacted to discourage
people from sleeping at their offices, something that I imagine
happens around here somewhat regularly here, what with all the
artistic types. But in the dream our core concern was trying to
classify the US Army issue field beds that we have. Would they be
considered as mattresses or not? Might as well have banned sleeping at offices. It closing on five
in the morning at the moment and I am still here, at the office
(wasn't here yesterday though when I had the dream). With ramen
noodles and yerba mate. Its snowing, but sparsely. Quite pretty
actually. Surprisingly light out there, sort of yellowish
fog. Listening to Songs: Ohia's "The Magnolia Electric Co". Very
peaceful. A bit cold here but it always is during the night. It's been already three weeks since we returned from
Lebanon. Should take some time next weekend and sort through the
pictures. And write a travel diary of sorts. It was a good trip. We
got out in good time before the general strike and the clashes that
followed. But time to sleep.
[/hacking]
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Surfing for swell forecasts (at 5,99 €/MB) Duh, yeah, surfing is expensive, but I thought it mostly had to do
with the transportation (300 km of driving one way between Helsinki
and Pori) and with the time invested (lost productivity). Earlier
today Sonera was king enough drop me an sms and inform that my next
mobile phone bill would be in the order of 180 euros. Like, I mean,
wtf? Apparently I am being charged for - well - surfing. The past week I'd
done two trips to Pori and having stayed in Raisio I'd been forced to
bear with the wonders of the mobile Internet for my swell
forecasts. Setting up the network connection via Bluetooth between my
Powerbook and Nokia had been relatively painless. I was a bit
mystified though that things just worked. I didn't recall ever
ordering any GPRS package with my subscription. But no matter, it
worked and since none of my mobile-IRC addicted friends had complained
of excessive costs, I was more or less satisfied. As it turns out, my subscription has had a basic data service by
default. Fine except that traffic is charged at a completely
ridiculous 5,99 euros per MB. Having surfed for swell forecasts (and
some IRC, a bit of news.bbc.co.uk) for some 25 MB, the data transfer
bill stands at 150,18 euros. Sucks, but oh well, doesn't really compare with the first bill from
Sonera after a couple of weeks in Damascus. At well over a thousand
euros that's a clear record. That was covered by the company, but
swell forecast surfing, that's on me. P.S. No, I am not writing this over GPRS, but rather at the city
library of Raisio where they have excellent WLAN, at no cost.
[/surfing]
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Four hours to ceasefire So we now have a UN security council resolution, 1701. And an agreed
upon time for the ceasefire to come into effect in roughly four hours
(on Monday at 0500 UTC). Heavy fighting in the south through Sunday,
Israelis bombing southern Beirut and over two hundred and fifty
Katyushas in the Isreali north. Lebanese cabinet agrees to 1701 on
Saturday, but fails to even have a scheduled meeting the next day to
start discussions on the actual (and crucial) implementation
details. Nasrallah has also voiced his and Hezbollah's commitment to
abide by 1701 except of course that as long as the IDF is present in
Lebanon that abidance is effectively null and void. I don't know. Maybe there would be room for cautious optimism, but
still: the truce is very fragile indeed and clashes between HA and IDF
seem inevitable. It all depends on Hezbollah. Isreal went to war with
a stated objective of Hezbollah's annihilation. Hezbollah is still
there, keeping up the barrage of rockets on Sunday as usual. Israelis
have advanced up to the Litani river, but certainly haven't secured
the territory. Militarily HA has won and IDF lost. Politically it is still unclear. Maybe Olmert can salvage something
out of the disaster, like, why was it all worth it. Lebanon is still
hostage to Hezbollah. Why would they give up such a position? Shebaa
is a sham, convienient excuse to keep up the "resistance"
credentials. Shebaa is only resistance to disarm, resistance to
compromise, resistance to participate in a pluralistic democracy,
resistance to be truly Lebanese. By virtue of its ability to execute
on its own foreign policy Hezbollah has unique control over Lebanese
domestic politics. Being "truly Lebanese" Hezbollah would not resist
being stripped of such control. Funny the way Hezbollah is seen as an Iranian/Syrian proxy or
champions of Arabism/Islamism. As if Hezbollah is by default part of a
bigger game. Certainly it is, but such thinking also merges Lebanon
into wider conflicts. Lebanon has suffered enough for being a proxy in
regional struggles and has sacrificed enough in championing causes of
pan-whatever. I wrote about it before, but I say it again. Hezbollah must disarm,
but Lebanese domestic politics must be reformed. Current model of
confessional democracy doesn't work for Hezbollah. Demographic
realities must be adhered to and in return Hezbollah must become a
true party in the liberal democratic sense. What we'll have then is a
real test of the democratic
peace theory. Israel is a democratic state. With a democratic,
authoritative Lebanese state as a counterpart, could they make the
theory work and maintain peace?
[/middle-east]
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Hezbollah courageous? I don't think so. We had an interview of the author Emily Nasrallah in the local
daily, Helsingin Sanomat. I've been carrying around a collection of
her short stories for a week or so, but haven't actually managed
beyond the introduction. What amazed me in the interview was what she
said about Hezbollah. "War always creates more problems than it solves. Nevertheless on
can't but admire the courage and will power of the Hezbollah
fighters. They risen to oppose Israel, the strongest military might in
the region, in a manner that no Arab country has been bold enough to
do. It is astonishing even if one doesn't support Hezbollah
itself." Some semi-serious comparisons have been made between Nasrallah
(Hassan) and Che Guevara. What Nasrallah (Emily) says reminds me of my
own stance towards Che. I've never endorsed Che's politics, I've
always considered his methods reprehensible, but I've always admired
his attitude. Che believed and was consistent in acting on his
beliefs. With Hezbollah I can't accept the politics or the methods, nor
admire the attitude. First, the premises of Hezbollah as the
"resistence" are void. Shebaa is simply not worth it; prisoners would
be freed if Hezbollah disarmed; and being dogmatically anti-Israeli is
utterly out of touch of any realpolitik. Second, the methods? Saturating civilian targets with Katyushas,
very civilized indeed. As a friend pointed out, the asymmetric ratio
of civilian deaths between Lebanon and Israel is not due to lack of
malicious intent on the part of Hezbollah. The Israelis simply have
better weapons, but both sides are causing unacceptable death and
terror among the civilian population. Third, would I admire the courage of Hezbollah fighters? It takes
some gall to take on Israel, but the purity of Hezbollah's motives is
absolutely open to question. And what courage is there in sacrificing
Lebanon for politics that don't make sense and are not backed by a
shared agreement covering the whole polity. Subjecting Lebanon to
destruction for parochial interests is at best cowardly. Granted, much of the criticism could be levied on Che as
well. So maybe it is just that Che with his beret and scragly beard cuts
a more dashing figure than Nasrallah in his robes and groomed
beard.
[/middle-east]
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Israel halts air strikes, what about the Katyushas? According to Reuters Israel has acquiesced to a two day cessation of
air strikes. Depressing that it was necessary to have a tragedy in
Qana once again. But had this worst hit of the war happened elsewhere
it wouldn't have carried to same strong symbolic meaning and perhaps
not forced the Israelis to compromise. However, forty eight hours is a very short period of time indeed. The
security council will undoubtedly convene and must hammer together a
convincing resolution. As far as Hezbollah is concerned, resolution
1559 will be reiterated. Hezbollah must disarm, Lebanese army to be
deployed in the south and a "robust" international force organized to
assist the army. A prisoner exchange should also happen. The Israelis
will not accept anything less. I am not feeling very optimistic. Isreal wanted to have ten to
fourteen days to "finish the operation". What would that have
entailed? More bombardment of the south. More civilian casualties as
there is no easy way out of the villages in the south. Before the
announcement of a halt in air strikes Israel had warned the residents
of two villages in the south of imminent strikes. In a show of
astonishing arrogance the Isrealis had been demanding the UN evacuate
the residents of the villages before sunset. Considering the lack of
care the IDF showed towards the UN last Tuesday in Khiam, it is no
wonder that Annan promptly retorted with a "no way". No aerial bombardment, but what will the IDF do then? Certainly they
will not stand idle while Hezbollah continues with rockets. More
rockets were launched today at Israel than on any day
before. Extending ground operations within Lebanon seems out of the
question for the IDF. After several bloody days of combat around Bint
Jbeil resulted in a failure of the IDF to secure the city and in a
retreat on Saturday, it doesn't seem likely they would take on
Hezbollah at close quarters. Seeing that the internal debate within
Israel has been growing critical of the abilities of the IDF to
achieve destruction of Hezbollah (at least with current tactics), it
is conceivable that Israel would give diplomacy a chance. Again, I am not optimistic. Hezbollah's capabilities have probably not
been significantly impaired and thus they have little incentive to
stop rocketing south of the border. Unless the diplomatic efforts
achieve a breakthrough and an agreement with Hezbollah by Wednesday,
the IDF will commence with increased vigor and bomb southern Lebanon
to cincers. Nothing much else they can do. Everything now depends on Hezbollah. What was Hezbollah expecting on
the 12th of July when they launched their crossborder assault? A
simple prisoner exchange to bolster their standing as champions of
pan-Arabism and as the arch enemy of Isreal; after all, can't let
Hamas and Khaled Meshaal steal the show. If Hezbollah was not counting
on an all out war with the IDF, they might be ready to cease
hostilities. What would be needed then would be a reshaping of
internal Lebanese politics. Hezbollah as a political party is less significant than Hezbollah as a
guerrilla force executing its own foreign policy at the expense of the
Lebanese state. By engaging in violent geopolitics Hezbollah can force
its hand in Lebanese politics and effectively holds a veto. Hezbollah
upends the doctrine of war as an extension of politics. With its
wargames it plays the worn out "undermine the state in order to
bolster your sectarian interests" routine. Since the cedar revolution
and ousting of the Syrians, it is Hezbollah that has refused the
return to a pre-1976 pluralism, fragile though that might have always
been. I can't see Hezbollah disarming except if it can be reborn as a bona
fide political party sans militia, but with significantly increased
political influence. An overdue deconfessionalisation of the Lebanese
electoral system would achieve this. On the short term sectarian
interests of the Shiite would gain. Longer term one might hope for a
truly deconfessionalized system where parties are formed around issues
and ideologies that cut through sectarian boundaries. Nasrallah has
claimed that it is not the aim of Hezbollah to mold Lebanon into an
Iranian style Hezbollahstan. Maybe Hezbollah could indeed function as
a constructive actor in a liberal democratic system. If not, then it
doesn't seem possible for Mount Lebanon and Hezbollahstan to coexist
within one sovereign state.
[/middle-east]
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A first-third-life crisis? No way, skateboarding rules! I think midlife crisis is outdated. If one is to live, say, ninety
years, what's so special in being in your forties or fifties? Would
seem that a partitioning life into three thirty year segments would be
more appropriate. First thirty you learn, next thirty you apply and do
your contribution to society, last thirty you relax; I mean, the
mid-thirty were tough enough so you've got the right to chill out a
bit before the end. So I've been thirty for close to half a year already. Have I hit the
crisis yet, have I readjusted, have I started to take things
seriously, have begun to contribute? Not really. Instead I've
regressed. In a desperate attempt to shake off some fifteen of the
accumulated thirty I've taken to skateboarding with some gusto. Sometime circa mid-nineties I saw an ad in Wired. A fellow was bombing
down a hill with a Sector 9
longboard. Not that I'd ever seen a longboard before, but I wanted
one. Sure I'd had a skateboard back in the eighties. Still, at the
advanced age of twenty-three I felt too embarrassed to be buying a
skateboard. At the surf/skate shop in Santa Cruz, California I lied to
be purchasing the board for one of my brothers. When I picked up the
board later (after my first ever session of surfing, yeah, I had try
all these things Californian) the people at the shop reminded me not
to try it out, it was for my brother, after all. Trying to cover my
bluff I retorted lamely, oh no, I wouldn't dare, I can wipe out on
snow or water, but asphalt is not for me. Being on my eighth season with longboards I've mostly used them for
downhill and as an alternative mode of transport: almost as fast as a
bicycle and you can grab the board and hitch a ride with public
transport no problem. Last week though I passed by a small, wide and, crucially, empty
vertical ramp. Next morning, Friday, on my way to the office I went to
try it out. Feeling seriously goofy I tried the simplest thing
possible: pumping for speed. Surprisingly, it worked and I was able to
ride up and down the curving sides of the ramp. Amazing how heavy it
can be on your feet. After an hour or so I had to call it a day as my
legs turned to spaghetti didn't seem to support me anymore in an
accident free zone. Had to purchase new wheels and bearings that day. On my way from the
ramp to the office the bearings in one wheel had got stuck. I rode in
anyway, but shouldn't have. Visiting a skate shop to buy new bearings
I found out that the wheel with faulty bearings had actually
melted. Never seen that happen before. Sad. Those where the wheels I'd
bought from the shop in Santa Cruz and they were still my favourite
set. Last Monday brought in new advances in my newly found passion for
skating the ramp. I managed to make clean turns (one-eighty degrees)
both back and front side. As well I could connect those turns and keep
up momentum in the ramp. Three sessions in total that day, two at
Lauttasaari and one in Leppävaara. I like the ramp in Lauttasaari a
lot better, being rather wide I don't need to fear dropping of the
sides. Late afternoon now. What've I done today? Slept late, gone
skating. Bad for work. Met a fellow from the longboard crowd at the
ramp. He had a rather interesting shortboard, a bit longer and wider
than the norm. More manouverable than my longboard, yet still with
quit a bit more stability than regular shortboards, those I can't
handle at all. Too bad you can get those only direct from the vendor,
Conspiracy
Skateboards. They're in Denver, Colorado of all places. With $75
for board and overseas shipment it's not too bad though. Sorry for such a stoked tirade, but I had to. ;-)
[/skate]
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Seeing Beirut, thinking Quneitra When my brother visited me in Damascus last fall we day tripped to the
village of Quneitra. Beyond the modern village lies a strip of UN
controlled land accessible from Syria, beyond that the Israeli
occupied Golan Heights. A permit (easily obtained in Damascus) is
required to enter old Quneitra. Also, a representative of the Syrian
security services will accompany all visitors and show around the
"sights". My feelings towards the visit are mixed. What the Syrians want
visitors to see is a testament to the evils of the Israelis. When the
Israelis retreated after the 1967 war they purposefully ruined most of
the village. The Syrians have left things as is except (naturally)
adding signs such as "Quneitra hospital: turned by the Zionists in to
a firing target and destroyed". After the visit I was feeling rather disgusted. No denying that the
Isrealis had reduced buildings to rubble, but first and foremost I was
feeling the usual nausea of an onslaught of Syrian propaganda. Having
been in Syria for months and months I had little patience for the
dogmatic anti-Israeli drivel propagated by the regime and sadly
accepted by the population at large. Why support a war memorial when
it serves a repressive regime that requires an external enemy as an
important source of domestic support? Some five months after the visit I was in Damascus again and staying
in the al-Rabie hotel (highly recommended), a backpacker haunt. There
I met a Japanese-Korean fellow. He'd visited Quneitra earlier that day
and was highly impressed. For him the site had meaning as a way to
grasp what war is truly about. A valid viewpoint, I agreed, but still
it was hard for me to see the village as anything but a propaganda
exhibit. The reason why I am writing about this are the pictures coming from
south Beirut and the border. First few days of the war I didn't seem
to quite grasp the situation. The south was inaccessible and Hezbollah
had cordoned off south Beirut. Walking around in Beirut I've seen
enough reminders of the previous wars - buildings left standing as
skeletons only and the ubiquitous pockmarks of machine gun fire - to
have thought I knew the look of destruction. Not so, not at all. I've
seen a living Beirut, not Beirut being destroyed, reduced to
non-existence. Please, IDF, don't destroy Lebanon. Hezbollah asked for war, I don't
really care about them, but Lebanon has been scarred enough.
[/middle-east]
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Buy Lebanese wines! On Monday I went with a friend to a demonstration in the center of
Helsinki organized by an "anti-war network" (pictures). What I
wanted to do was show my support for Lebanon, but I should have known:
instead of acknowledging the complexity of the situation in Lebanon
the demonstration was an uncritical display of anti-Israeli
fervor. Please, Lebanon is not Palestine. Despite the many similarities
between the ongoing crises in Gaza and Lebanon, serious confusion
results whenever they are lumped together in a mess of anti-Isreali
sentiment. Marching with indignation to the Isreali embassy in
Helsinki the demonstration seemingly managed to absolve Hezbollah of
any responsibility. Instead we were treated to a speech by a
representative of the Palestinian authorities treating us to claims
such as Israel being the sole remaining occupying power in the world
and the legitimacy of "resistance" against Israel. Admitted there was one small banner stating the obvious "Hezbollah !=
Lebanon". Whenever the marching crowd was chanting "Olmert is a
killer, Bush is a killer" my friend and I tried timidly to follow with
"Nasrallah is a killer". Ditto with "Hezbollah is terrorist" to
"Israel is terrorist, America is terrorist". We managed to draw
glances from several of our fellow marchers, but whether they approved
or not, I don't know. If only Hezbollah would have an embassy, I'd be there demonstrating
daily. But that's wishful thinking; Hezbollah simply executes their
own foreign policy on the expense of Lebanon as a whole. Simply the
worst piece of utter bs during this campaign has been the Hezbollah
appeal for Lebanese patriotism, the claim to be working in the
interests of the Lebanese people. After the demonstration we headed out to support Lebanon by buying
four bottles of 2003 Chateau Ksara. Earlier that day my mother had
raided the local store and emptied the shelves of Ksara with a
purchase of nine bottles. As of today, they still hadn't restocked. Everybody in the Alko service area (i.e. Finland), do something little
and buy a bottle or two of Ksara or Musar. We need to empty the
central storage facilities of Alko of all Lebanese wines. Once the
Isreali blockade clears we want Alko to have new order out. Also, let
me know if there are other Lebanese products available here. Addendum: Last week Umayya Abu-Hanna and small group of
people organized a rather more subdued, but in my opinion more
appropriate demonstration. White flowers were laid in front of the
Israeli embassy. Update: Over at The
Lebanese Bloggers a similar experience at a rally is described: if
one condemns Hezbollah, people seem to assume that as an implicit an
approval of Israeli actions. Update, 2006-07-26: Another rally was held in Helsinki last
Monday (pictures). I
didn't attend, but according to reports in local media the crowd
marched to the embassy again and burned a homemade Israeli flag. I
don't really approve. Wholehearted demonization of Isreal and mixing
up the Lebanese and Palestinian issues is not productive and most of
all absolves Hezbollah.
[/middle-east]
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Säädin moottoria Säädinpä hieman Blosxomia eli
käyttämääni blogimoottoria. Kauniilta ei ei edelleenkään
näytä. Olkoot. Blogit ovat muutoinkin turhan kronologisia. Toivoisin
enemmän wikimäisyyttä, mutta sellainen virittely jäänee tuonnemmaksi. Myöhään taas istuskelen toimistolla. Vuorokausi vaihtuu kohta. Lopetin
työt tunti sitten oltuani täällä puolen vuorokautta. Olisi aika lähteä
tallustamaan kotiin. Se on sitten tunnin kävely, mutta ei uni muuten
tule. Ei voi ottaa suoraan taksia kotiin. Ehkä kotona voisi
suihkussakin käydä. Kummallisesti kämppä tarjoilee lämmintä vettä vain
aamuyöllä eikä aina silloinkaan. Kylmä vesi vuorilta heti aamutuimaan
ei kovin innosta. Onko tänään jo maanantai? Kolme työpäivää mennyt kuin
huomaamatta. Enää toiset kolme ja sitten perjantaina vapaa. Vähän
kehnolla mielellä tein tämän pitkän päivän. Kurja pää, ihan
rikki. Eilen oli parempi ja tuotteliaampaa. Ehkä projekti vielä
saadaan kunnialla kasaan vaikka onhan tässä selkeät riskinsä. Kämpille.
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Rutinoitumisen riski Kolmekymmentä vuotta ja yksi kuukausi. Olen ehtinyt aikani
vaeltaa. Lienenkö mitään oppinut? Marisin illalla irkkiin pitäessäni
töistä taukoa. Kirosin työtäni ja sen implikaatioita. Kevensin
sydäntäni. Mahtavat #kasvualla piakkoin taas kyllästyä. Syyriassa
taas. Saadaan kuulla toistuvia angstisia vuodatuksia kanavalla, sitten
se taas menee, tekee työtä pari tuntia ja eiköhän vaan ole kohta taas
takaisin ja sama virsi. Se on vähemmän hauskaa huomata miten helposti vanhoihin rutiineihin on
pudota. Syksyllä oli täällä töitä mahdottomasti. Yritettiin saada
projekti kasaan, ei saatu, tietenkään - siksi olen takaisin. Vietin
öitä toimistolla, talsin aamurukousten aikaan himaan, nukahdin
aamupäiväksi ja olin iltapäivän aluksi takaisin töissä. Syyrialaiset
pitivät minua täysin tärähtäneenä. Hyvästä syystä. Eilen perjantaina kävin vuorilla juoksemassa. Vähäisen unen ja
ylenmääräisen Kefrayan voimalla, mutta silti. Olin kotona
illalla. Yritin lukea, mutta väsy tuli. Simahdin sohvalle heräten
siitä tänään aamulla, myöhässä. Herään sohvalta, Morcheeba: Wonders Never Cease, pidin kovasti tästä
kappaleesta kesällä, masennuttaa, hiukset ovat oluessa (olen käynyt
Hashilla ja pitkästä aikaa, sitä se teettää, klubiin palaavia
rangaistaan), masennuttaa, olen lähdössä liian myöhään liikkeelle,
suihku ei taaskaan toimi, vain haaleaa vetta, miten pirussa ihmisen
pitäisi hässikaljaiset hiukset kylmällä vedellä pestä, hä? Katson surffifilmiä läppäriltä, takut pois hiuksista, vaatteet ovat
ryppyiset, kaksi silitysrautaa olen ostanut, molemmat antanut pois, en
ole uskonut takaisin tulevani, katselen keittiön ikkunasta moskeijaa
auringossa, kaupungin yllä on tummat pilvet ja smogiharso, tuolilta
kuivumasta tummunut t-paita, näyttää olevan yksi niistä, jotka ostin
lentoyhtiön lähettäessä tavarani ensin epähuomiossa Pariisiin ja
sieltä viiveellä Beirutin kautta tänne. Irkissä väitettiin tänään, että olen kenties Syyriassa saanut
arvokkaan opetuksen. Oppinut ymmärtämään itseäni ja ehkä myös
ympäröivää maailmaa. Ehkä näin on. Pureksimista tämä vähän yli vuoden
aika vaatii. On opittava tarkemmin harkitsemaan mihin sitoutuu. Ei ole
ollut helppo komennus. Vaan ei voi mitään. Olisin voinut projektista
sanoutua irti, mutta en sitä tehnyt. On homma hoidettava eikä se
sinällään hankalaa olekaan. Kolmisen viikkoa enää. Enemmän varmaan
katuisin ellen töitäni loppuun hoitaisi. Perhanan syyrialainen valtiokoneisto. Yksi kleptokraatinen mafia koko
arabisosialistisen pyramidin korkein kerros. Se on uskomatonta kuinka
paljon täällä voidaan käyttää energiaa vaikka Israelin
vihaamiseen. Onhan sille syynsä, mutta Syyriassa patrioottisen
mouhotuksen taustalla on vain diktatuurin ylläpito. Ulkopoliittisen
tilanteen varjolla oikeutetaan sisäpoliittinen kuri ja järjestys. Olen keventänyt sydäntäni. (Aivan liina myöhään olen valveilla, mutta pelästyin menettäneeni
arvokkaan unitunnin. En sentään. Se olikin vain kesäaikaan siirtyminen
Suomessa. Syyriassa olemme vielä talvessa.)
[]
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Haxoroin (Aamuyöllä perjantaina 24.3.2006.) Kämpän vieressä, ostarilla olevan kahvilan seinään on ilmestynyt:
FREE INTERNET WIRELESS - sellaisin järkälemäisin kirjaimin, joiden
tuottamiseksi lienee uhratun useampia Damaskoksen pörröisistä
kulkukissoista. Olin mojunut toimistolla turhan myöhään ja
rauhoittavaksi iltakävelyksi tallustelin Muhagrinista alas
Umaijadi-aukiolle, otin taksin al-Akramin moskeijalle ja kävelin siitä
ostarin ohi kohti kotia. En voinut vastustaa kiusausta. Kaivoin läppärin esille ja kävin
istuskelemaan kahvilan viereen. Itse kahvila oli jo sulki, mutta
sisältä kuului hiljaista musiikkia ja siivouksen ääniä. Odottelin
koska minut tullaan ajamaan pois. Siinä on omanlaistansa tunnelmaa
istua läppäri sylissä etelän lämpimässä yössä. Avoin verkko löytyi, "wlan-ap". Sain osoitteen,
"192.168.1.254". Yritin ottaa ssh-yhteyden kotiin ja morjenstaa
porukoita irkissä, ei onnistunut. Eikä onnistunut
selailukaan. "netstat -rn" ja tukiaseman osoite selville. "nmap" ja
avoimena löytyi 23/tcp (telnet), 53/tcp (domain) ja 80/tcp
(http). Selaimella kiinni tukiasemaan, salasanaa kysytään. Ok,
leikitään mukana, annetaan "admin" ja "admin". Kappas vain ja säkiti
säk. Vänkää, hurjaa haxorointia, mutta siihen se jäi. Otti akku ja
loppui. Kävelin kotiin. Kahvilan "ADSL Firewall Router" oli merkkiä
"Billion" ja sehän on tietysti "Powering communications with
Security". Hyvä niin, mutta tyhmiltä käyttäjiltä ei pelasta biljoona
ja risat turvaominaisuutta. Kuuntelen irkkumusaa, Planxty. Oli taas
hauskat speksaukset #kasvualla. Melkein vakavissaan oltiin
vuokraamassa kämppää kesälle kuukaudeksi Irlannista ison veden
rannalta. Idea siis olisi tietysti tehdä kuukausi ankaraa koodausta
fisuksen tuotekehitysprojektien eteen. Aavistuksen verran
toteuttamiskelvoton idea, mutta sen verta sekopäinen, että en
yllättyisi vaikka se peräti ottaisi ja toteutuisi. (Äh äh. Kylpyammeessa on selälleen kellahtunut kuolleeksi mennyt
torakka. Ärsyttää. Mielentilani ei ole kovin torakkamyönteinen. Eilen
tulin kotiin. Avasin vessan oven ja putosi torakka niskaan. Se kipitti
makuuhuoneeseen ja varmaan muutti asumaan sänkyni alle.)
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Hyvää äitienpäivää! tiistaina 21.3.2006 Viime vuonna samaan aikaan vanhemmat olivat käymässä
Damaskoksessa. Vietettiin levantilaista äitienpäivää. Töissä tänään
vain valtion porukat. Varsinaisen asiakkaamme - yksityinen yhtiö -
henkilöstöllä on ensimmäistä kertaa äitienpäivä lomaa. Kertoivat siitä
sunnuntaina innolla. Äitienpäivän tosin huomasin jo Beirutissa,
kadunvarret täynnällään isoja mainostauluja: äitienpäivä tulee, osta
äidille jotain kivaa.
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Chateau Kefraya (tiistaina 21.3.2006) Chateau Kefraya 2004, Vallée de la Békaa, Liban. Jos olisin
viiniasiantuntija, osaisin kuvailla kokemani makuelämyksen. Koska en
kuitenkaan ole edes libanonilaisten viinien asiantuntija, voin vain
todeta maun olevan varsin voimakkaan happaman kirpeä ja sanoisinko
ontohko. Sopivasti ennakoiden olisin älynnyt pysähtyä Beirutissa
ostamassa opuksen maan viineistä. Eihän tässä oikeastaan muuta
tekemistä olekaan kuin puolet vuorokaudesta viettää toimistolla,
kolmannes unessa ja vapaa-ajan kuudenneksen voi maleksua kirjoitellen
vaikkapa näin Kefrayan äärellä. Tylsistytti lähtiessäni iltasella toimistolta. En kerrassaan viitsinyt
jäädä kadunvarteen metsästämään vapaata taksia. Lähdin suosiolla
talsimaan ylhäältä vuorelta alas Umaijadi-aukiolle ja sieltä Mezzeh
autostradan vartta kotiin. Vuorelta öisen pimeä Damaskos on aina
vaikuttava. Matkalla aukiolle ohitin Suomen suurlähetystön, joka
Tanskan ja Ruotsin lähetystöistä poiketen oli säästynyt hallituksen
masinoimalta pyromaaniselta kansankiihkolta. Islamilainen perimätieto kertoo profeetta Muhammadin olleen
kauppamatkalla Bilad as-Shaamissa, pohjoisen mailla. Muhammad katseli
kaupunkia vuorelta ja totesi: minä astun paratiisiin vain kerran. Näin
Muhammadilta jäi Damaskos käymättä. Se Damaskos, jossa Barada
tarkoitti karmaisevuudellaan viha-rakkaussuhdetta elättävän oluen
sijasta kaupungin läpi virtaavaa vuolasta jokea. Se Damaskos, joka oli
tunnettu vehreydestään. Aiemmin pidin kaupunkia rähjäisyydessään omalla tavallaan
romanttisena. En enää, masentavaa kurjuutta vain eikä se vallitsevan
sosialistisen kleptokratian alaisuudessa mihinkään kehity. Mitä
ihmettä ranskalaisnuoret mesoavat taas barrikadeilla? Kävisivät
Syyriassa katsomassa mihin päädytään, kun työsuojelussa mennään
siihen, että valtaosa väestöstä työskentelee valtiolle ja potkut ovat
aina ministeritason päätös. Markkinamekanismin luovan tuhon
ylenmääräisen kahlitsemisen seurauksena on statismia, jossa ensin
ihminen ei voi tehdä mitään ja siihen totuttuaan ei uskalla mitään. Huolestuttavaa. Voisin vallitsevassa mielentilassani lukea vaikkapa Ayn Randia. Se on kummallista kuinka nopeasti sitä omaksuu vanhat toimintavat ja
habituksen. Olen ollut täällä vasta muutaman päivän, mutta olen
tehokkaasti putoamassa siihen samaan rutiiniin, josta kolme kuukautta
sitten lähdin. Samat työt, sama kämppä. Sama kaoottinen kaupunki,
samat tuoksut ja hajut. Havahduin auringon laskiessa ensimmäistä
kertaa huomioimaan rukouskutsun. Vuosi sitten aloittaessani täällä
saatoin herätä aikaisin aamulla kämpän lähellä olevien moskeijoiden
kutsuun. Olin kai niin tottunut rukouskutsuihin, että pari päivää
kesti ennen kuin edes kunnolla havaitsin ne. Matkalla vuorelta kävelin puiston halki. Nokkaan luikerteli tuttu
tuoksu. Katsahdin ja pariskunta oli leppoisasti polttelemassa
vesipiippua. Autostradan varrella sisäpihan portin alta maleksia
vastaan pörröinen kulkukissa. Risteyksessä tien reunassa istui mies
pyörätuolissa. Varmaan oli kerjuulla. En antanut rahaa. Ehkä olisi
pitänyt, mutta kovetin sydämeni. Jos yhdelle lantin lahjoittaa, pitää
sitten kaikille eikä siitä tule loppua. Tuntuu vaikeammalta kuin
viimeksi olla etuoikeutettu länsimaalainen. Katselin kateellisena tien
varteen parkkeerattuja uusia bemareita, mersuja ja
kaupunkimaastureita. Varallisuuden sijasta etuoikeutetun asemani
perusta on kuitenkin taustani suomalaisessa yhteiskunnassa. Se on kuin
trampoliini. Silti on aika helppo ponnistaa vaikka kuinka korkealle. Sen kunniaksi kaadan toisen lasillisen Kefrayaa ja menen tyhjentämään
pesukoneen.
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"Kotona" - sama vanha kämppä sunnuntaina 19.3.2006 Saavuin juuri kämpille ja perin kummallista - niin kummallista, että
on heti kirjoitettava. Mikään ei ole muuttunut. Olen ollut kolme
kuukautta Suomessa ja on kuin palaisin viettämästä viikonloppua
Beirutissa. Jääkaapissa on edelleen vanhat vesipullot, erityisen
viileinä, syyrialaiset tiivistemehut, joista saa vain tahmeaa mönjää
vesilasillisen pohjalle, tyhjät pullot keittiön pöydällä ja kaksi
libanonilaista viinipulloa Choutturamasta - se kauppakahvila, jossa
likimain aina taksit pysähtyvät lähellä rajaa - molemmat täysiä, ei
Ksaraa, mutta yksi Chateau Kefraya ja toinen Nakad, molemmat Bekaan
laaksosta, sekä tietysti puolikas pullo jordanilaista Bavrok vodkaa,
josta appelsiinitiivistemehulla saa mitä karmaisevimpia
ruuvimeisseleitä. Makuuhuoneen prinsessapedissä on puhtaat lakanat ja ihana paksu täkki
Mezzeh autostradan Rankoussista, eipä ole tainnut karhut nukkua
prinsessan ollessa poissa vai miten päin se menee. Olohuoneen tuolilta
löytyy nivaska hihattomia t-paitoja, en viitsinyt raahata niitä
Suomeen sekä puolen tusinaa käyttämättömiä, Nikea kloonaavia ja aivan
liian pieniä sukkia, jotka minulle onnistuttiin myymään kerran
Baramkessa odottaessani taksia täyttyväksi kohti
Beirutia. Suurlähetystön Suomi-esitteet ja joulukuuta osoittava Suomi
2005 -kalenteri ovat tietysti paikallaan. Uskaltauduin vessaan. Taskulamppu on sekin tallella, mutta tällä
kertaa kämpässä onneksi on sähköt. No, olipa siivo. Minunkin epäkelpo
nenäni haistaa kämpässä oudon ödöörin, johon lienin aiemmin
tottunut. Ei torakoita, elävinä tai kuolleina, mutta kasoittain
hiekanjyväsiä, joita muurahaiset termiitteinä möyhivät talon
rakenteista. En kyllä myönnä jättäneeni vessaa moiseen siivoon, en
varmasti. Kämpän lattia on muutenkin aika inha, ei houkuttele
tallustelemaan pehmein villasukin, sain ne joululahjaksi. Kolmessa
kuukaudessa kuontaloni sulkasato on ehtinyt kerääntyä palleroiksi
lattialle ja kasoiksi nurkkiin. Lienee aika suunnata kioskikaupalle. Aamiasta tarvitsisin ja ehkä
löytyisi korkkiruuvi maistaakseni lasillisen Kefrayaa. Eipä löytynyt tuosta paremmasta (siis isommasta ja markettimaisemmasta
eli tyhmälle länsimaalaiselle helpommasta ja kontaktia
välttelevämmästä) kaupasta korkkiruuvia (miksi löytyisi, kun olutkin
on non-alcoholic; kioskien alkoholiton siideri on tosin hyvää) eikä
myöskään arabirieskaa, joka tappiona on merkittävämpi. Mahtaisinko
vaivautua köpöttelemään Iranin ja Kanadan suurlähetystöjen tienoille
Family Mart -kauppaan, sieltä varmasti saisin korkkiruuvin ja muutakin
hyödyllistä. Pizzan saisi siitä vierestä myös. Ottaisi mukaan Jemenin
matkakirjan ja lueskelisi hetken. Vähän on väsy, mutta ei kuitenkaan
uni tule, sellainen levoton olo uusvanhaan ympäristöön saavuttaessa. Niin, Pampan appelsiini-porkkanaa onneksi löytyi, se on kerrassaan
mainiota mehua, mutta kierrättämättömät lasipullot ovat aivan
katastrofi. Katsos, äidin ja isän vuosi sitten tuomia
pääsiäisserviettejä on vielä muutama keittiössä. En vaivaudu sittenkään kävelemään kauemmas kuin lähimmälle
kioskille. Saan arabirieskaa, syön sen kera halwaa, rahkaa ja
hilloa. Kaverit kioskissa naurahtavat astuessani sisään. Kumma
ajnabee, ulkomaanelävä, on näemmä saapunut takaisin. Kävelen ulos kaupasta ja kiertelen korttelin ympäri yrittäen löytää
rummutuksen lähteen. Se kaikuu kerrostaloista sinne tänne ja löydän
talon, jossa lienee käynnissä jonkinlaiset juhlat vasta hetken
maleksittuani. Katselen keittiön ikkunasta, autot tööttäilevät Hafez al-Assadin
motarilla, kaupunki ja minareettien vihreä hehku siellä
täällä. Tympäisevää. Olen jo kerran lähtenyt täältä, olen jättänyt
nämä näkymät, pidin niistä, mutta ei tämä ollut koti, eksoottista ja
väliaikaista vain. Olla uudelleen täällä on vain tympäisevää, en osaa
innostua samalla tavoin kuin aiemmin. On vaikea innostua Syyriasta uudelleen. Olen täällä vain tekemässä
työn eikä sekään ole kovin kiehtovaa. Lueskelen matkakirjaa Jemenistä,
haluisin sinne pian, täällä on niin yksinäistä.
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